Saturday, 6 December 2008

Taxi Drivers versus the Financial Times

I have been in Liverpool for a few days to visit a ship and came back with the impression that Britain is not really in the grips of a recession at all. I couldn't find a hotel in Liverpool, seems that everybody wanted to go there and the place was jam-packed with shoppers all carrying bags filled with recent purchases.

After four days of work on the vessel I left from Liverpool Lime Street on a train bound for York and then home and as the journey progressed I managed to dispel the images of crazed shopping, of a population desperate to spend every penny they have and more on credit before being maxed out. To further this return to supposed reality I gave my self a liberal dose of the Financial Times newspaper. I sweated page after page of trauma and desperation, of woe and collapse. I drip fed my brain with words like recession, retrenchment, redundancy and rationalize and I gave myself a suppository of bank and retailer projected failures over the coming months and years. I overdosed on worldwide unemployment growth statistics and swallowed large pills filled with 'experts' freely giving opinions on 'how deep and long', of 'historical comparison' and 'record breaking firsts' before finally feeling sedated with a check of my shares which have now all but reached Australia in their downward plunge.

I was just drifting off to sleep when a loud voice behind me interrupted my happy induced state. The loud voice emanated from a young hyped-up girl in the seat behind and her conversation went something like this:

"It's really "s**t" you know, my whole world has fallen around my ears. I've lost my job, really s**t you know. It just suddenly happened without warning, shit, nobody f**k told me, as the bitch in the office said to me, your fired!. I've packed my bags and left. Anyway, next day I had to take a mortgage out on our second house to cope, s**t, and then anyway, I'm so stressed that I'm going to our holiday home up North to chill out and think about things. S**t, f**k, might take the horse out for a ride and try to forget all about this. Lost my job and I don't know what to f****g thing anymore - will I be able to go on that holiday to Barbados - was taking three months out for vacation and its all paid for - s**t. Might go and get that Guchi bag I like so much to make myself feel better. Anyway; I got the caviar and champagne for tonight - its gonna be a great party." S**t though, my world has fallen apart.

She had with one simple phone call presented me with 101 good reasons why its hard to accept that Britian is reportedly in the middle of a recession. Here was a young lady that represented all that is bad and all that needs to be cured in the UK. To me she was not the victim of the downturn but an example of the cleansing that needs to be done. Not sure if I would have hired her in the first place but anyway, she managed to destroy my happiness for the rest of the journey. I have no doubts that she will survive well without having to dispose of the holiday home, change caviar for cheese or champagne for wine and I'm sure that she won't be out of work for very long - she just needs to stop swearing for ten seconds for daddy to be able to work his magic on some other poor and unsuspecting employer.

What puzzles me is that the only signs of recession (although this has not yet been confirmed yet) that I can find is that given freely in newspapers, on news channels and from the occasional little miss rich kid who shouldn't have been employed in the first place. Daily life around is one crazed arena filled to overflowing with open wallets and elbow-barging shoppers with manic gleams in their eyes.

Then there are the Taxi Drivers who are typically excellent barometers of current situations
and without doubt they are a superb source and indication of economic turmoil and upset, locally and nationally. Being self-made spokepersons on the state of the UK without much asking Taxi Drivers often give me lengthy reports on topical matters that have occured down-the-road or acroos the pond yet over the last few months the many cabs that I have had the pleasure of sitting in have not reverberated to the sounds of woe and misery and lost trade due to the lack of freely flowing cash hanging around. And why is this so? I have often asked a driver who allows me to get a word in edgewise about the credit crunch and how it has affected trade and the response has always been muted or along the lines of "business has been good guv" or "not around here mate". A woman driver in Liverpool even said "been busier that usual love" and then proceeded to tell me all about the ten-bedroomed family home that she was restoring back to original.

Are we really in the midst of massive downturn that drastically affects us all or is this just another massive journalistic train journey of hype and drama that has been blown out of all proportion? I think I'll treat the Financial Times as excellent fiction and tittle tattle and spend more time listening to the wisdom of the cabbies.

Sunday, 23 November 2008

Woolworths, the Great British Iconic Store

A couple of months ago I was thinking about (not aloud) buying a gross worth of Woolworth Shares. This was when they were around 4p each. This was an attempt to prop up my own faith in what has seemingly become a failing British Institution and backed up by the idea that some gallant knight on a shiny white porcelain steed (3.99 pounds for medium size) would coming galloping in to the rescue.

How could we, the British Public let an iconic store like Woolworths fail? But we are and the shares have now sunk further to around 2p each. The British public are all sitting back whilst this previous answer to all a families needs sinks beneath the waves and we are not even stepping forward with a sticking plaster (1.50 pounds for a pack of various sizes).

Plastic shops have taken over the UK, stores that promote cheapness, knives that cut once then break the next, screw a light bulb in and watch it go fizzle, see the chrome fall off a dish rack faster than it can be washed away, watch a fancy hair band snap in two, play with plasticine for the children and spend hours trying to wash it off, use the batteries once and then buy more, see your hair fall out with an overdose of chemicals disguised as shampoo and watch the ink run out of pen faster than you can write. The Pound Store, the 99p Store, Ali's Cave, etc. have all put the nail in the coffin of Woolworths and we have allowed it to happen.

Admittedly, the policy decisions of the Woolworths board has not been exactly great of late. They seem to have lost direction and it an attempt to find one have been changing the looks and stock faster than they can keep track of them. Years ago, once the CD and DVD side started to flag they should have found a new direction (3.99 pounds Comprehensive road map of the UK) and stuck to it but this never materialised and they have drifted around ever since.

No gallant knight has come forth and I doubt that one will now and whilst I am saddened at the British ability to throw a previous life to the bin (3.99 pounds metal with lid) I am extremely glad that I didn't buy those shares to watch them sink through the floor.

Saying that, it seems that Hilco is in talks to takeover the retail sector of Woolworths for a token one pound! Perhaps I could empty my piggy bank (1.99 pounds old post box style) and offer 5 pounds for the lock, stock and barrel?

Tuesday, 11 November 2008

The Spam Email that Caught the Eye

My Email program suffers from constant intrusion like hungry locusts before the harvest but for the most part my spam watcher dispenses with these without pause for compassion and the rest I have typically deleted before my brain registers there presence!

Every so often a spam email escapes through to my eyes and below is one such email. I post it here, not in the hope of making millions but out of sheer wonder! Is it feasible that anybody, however brain dead or senile they be, would ever fall for such? I read recently though that 1 in every 12.5 million spam emails works thus netting enough in illegal kickback to cover the other 12499999 Spam Emails that are deleted without further ado!

Dear Mr. Reginald Coat,

I will fly tonight with my family to the Cayman Islands and we will be back on 5th January! Until I return I will not be able to take calls or read any emails but I have left your share of the money in a locked briefcase (for security reasons) with a combination code number which I have written down and left under the green plant pot next to the weeping willow!

The briefcase containing your share of the 1.8 million Euros is now in the care of my gardener back in Ghana! I have instructed him to send the briefcase to you as soon as you contact him. I wisely told him that the briefcase contains some documents; if he knew that it held so much money he might keep it for himself (I hope he hasn't found the code by accident as he often moves that plant pot). Keep this strictly confidential to yourself as I cannot be responsible if anything happens to your money from now on.

Please call my gardener when you can and instruct him to send the briefcase to you. He doesn't speak any English so language might be a problem but his name is Kingsley and his mobile number is +9**********. E-mail address is: """"""""@"""""

Nice doing business with you and Merry Xmas and Happy New Year.

Best Regards

Mr George P. Washington

Friday, 7 November 2008

Great - a Recession at Last

I once stated that a recession should not be feared, that it is in-fact not such a bad thing at all and that I never really understand why the word "recession" sparks such fear in people! Had I said this in a bar across the street from Lehman Brothers headquarters in London last month or at a Bank of England policy meeting (to which they didn't invite me, thank you very much)I would have been battered around the head by some poor ex-bankers personal effects or bamboozled with utter rubbish being regurgitated by one of those very same guys that got us into this mess in the first place.

Are we in a recession now? Most likely, as the newspapers are turning this downturn into another hyped-up journalistic experience - we are having a recession boys and girls so take cover! Most first-world countries are currently predicting what could possibly be by now a full-blooded recession. The British one is going to be "long and deep" as so many British politicians like to state on national television and it is with us now.

Okay! So we have a recession then, the newspapers are relishing in anything that resembles a lay-off, a bankruptcy or a profit warning and the government is havering around trying to find yet another quick-fix solution in the rubbish bins of the local DIY shop.

So we are in a recession then!

This is therefore an excellent time to clean out those executive cupboards! The ideal opportunity to de-limber the hangers-on who have been emptying the coffers and filling their deep and demanding pockets - previously nobody could comment on this undisguised greed as they were all waiting their turn for a swim in the cookie jar. Now is the right time to rid ourselves of rip-off companies who cost so much and yet give so little (flybe.com - but that might be another story) and of workers who simply turn-up for a day of loafing and the paycheck at the end of the month before heading off for a bit of Paki-bashing or incessant grumbling to the well-disguised potato-couch family.

A period of downturn breeds visions of browner grass, of life as it once was and could be with empty stomachs and long and cold winter nights! It doesn't have to be! Just tighten the belt, live leaner, empty the pockets of rubbish, stop buying junk food and for 'god sake' the baby doesn't need a mobile phone! Poverty is not with us and will not be unless it is self-inflicted; take away the cigarettes, the booze and the daily visits to the local bookies and stop blaming it on the government or on the 'supposed recession', take away all the crap and what is left is more than enough money to eat healthy, live well and equal and with enough pennies left over to have a bottle of wine whilst waiting for the lottery results to show on the Tele.

A recession opens eyes, it is the perfect time for a spot of weeding, an opportunity for reflection and shows of consideration to others - an excellent time to start afresh and build from the bottom up once again.

A recession is far better than a bunch of banks and bankers, politicians and oil company executives ripping everybody off whist the victims sit around obliviously! A recession is far better than hundreds of people being hounded by society-accepted loan sharks, of credit card companies offering cheap credit and convincing the ignorant that it is the only way to live, it is a time to live better and to shop wisely not needlessly and to think about how one can cope with regard to heating bills and fuel usage. Can I walk for five-minutes to the local shop - do I really need a family-sized car to do that? In fact do I need a car at all?

Do I really need a Wii, a Walkman, a computer, a laptop, a radio, a television, a stereo, an ipod, a mobile phone, a,a,a,a,a,a? Do I really need two of each?

A recession should be welcomed as the ideal opportunity for reflection and a return to reality after the last decade of unconstrained greed and materialistic desperation.

Once the recession is over and better times come to us all I know without hesitation that sticky fingers and dreams of untold wealth will drag everybody and everything back down into the gutter. But I for one will enjoy this period of overwhelming self-reflection and hope that at least a couple of those people infused with greed will get their wrists slapped before the 'good' times roll again!

Saturday, 1 November 2008

The Reason for the Credit Crisis

I recently found myself stuck in an undersized yet comfortable hotel in Antwerp, being a Belgian couch potato whilst flicking through the unintelligible channels (except for the Porn) when it dawned on me what this credit crisis was all about!

Oil prices shot up earlier this year! They rose to the clouds and beyond and two things resulted. Large conglomerates found their running costs shooting up, car manufactures found waning demand and predictions freely flowed of a soon-to-be lack of minerals and resources the world over, which in effect caused mass-insecurity from the chief executive down to the mailman! The second effect of soaring oil prices was that oil rich nations suddenly became even wealthier as the money poured in!

Rich Arabs, Africans and Russians and loss-making westerners was not a situation that any self-decent western politician or hedge-fund manager, banker or director could accept lightly. That seesaw was stuck in the mud at one end, above the clouds at the other and no amount of political heavyweight talk, price-fixing or blame was making it move in favor of those who had once controlled it all!

And so along came the credit crunch and the resultant downfall of banks across Europe and the Americas!

This sudden collapse of the worlds financial system had two immediate effects. It caused oil prices and raw-resources to drop in price to more manageable levels. In concert it eroded the income of OPEC and other oil and mineral rich nations to more acceptable levels.

As a side bonus - before and up to the point of collapse of the western financial system many oil-rich nations had been pumping billions into western entities! Realistically speaking they had no choice as apart from building another seven-star hotel on a beach that was too hot to sunbathe on or creating more artificial reefs for rich alcoholics they didn't know what to do with the billions they were amassing!

Upon collapse these very-same share holders suddenly found that their shares in western firms were suddenly worthless! Not only did western nations manage to reduce oil prices to more acceptable levels but they also managed to recoup some of the billions owned by oil-rich nations and investors.

And now stage three is unfolding as these very same foreign investors, still flush with some more of the preceding years gains forget about the losses they have recently made and pump a few more billion into western markets and companies!

And throughout this turmoil the seesaw has evened out and the winners of all of this are clear - those western nations who have simply re-adjusted the billions back to themselves by creating the pantomime production through which to do it!

How anybody could create such a collapse and produce so much misery to the lower class is beyond me, technically and morally, but then that is not the point. Regardless of the method or legality of the credit crisis the goals have been suitably met!

Thursday, 23 October 2008

That Mathematics Teacher and my Halving Shares!

On the understanding that I failed the main mathematics exam at the age of 16 (O'grade) I must be forgiven for not completely understanding the complexities of buying and selling shares as a way to becoming wealthy!

Many months ago I formulated a long term plan for becoming rich beyond my wildest dreams! I must admit all those months ago when I put the plan into action that I was not standing on solid concrete but on a firm patch of soil near some bubbling swamp but at least it was a plan! I have since kept myself belonging to the faith by muttering "they will go up, they will go up".

Anyways, my plan was simple. The Plan: to buy a dozen worth of shares in completely different companies and then ignore them completely until they reached a an enormous ceiling of profit at which time I would sell and buy a house in the Grand Caymans!

My plan turned into disaster within days of my foray, it rained heavily on my patch of soil! Companies eleven and twelve became victim to the banking crisis; Paragon Mortgage Company was one of the first banks in the world to ask for recapitalization and so I made a complete loss on that one! The other called Bradford and Bingley I eventually sold out after hoping for better things and with the proceeds I bought an umbrella, a poor attempt to keep my patch of soil dry for another day!

Its been raining every day since!

It is fascinating to watch shares plummet! They can halve, then halve again and every time I say to myself "they can't possible go any lower now" but they do and they keep on going lower and lower, over and over again.

My mother went back to that mathematics teacher all those years ago and asked him if I could resit O'grade maths! I remember that teacher now, he was nearly on the floor slapping it in glee as he barely suppressed his chortle "no chance mum, your son is as thick as two short planks". Teachers were not as polite then as they are today!

Despite passing that subject second time around I never went back to pull my tongue at that teacher! I do though desperately want to return now, to tell him that yes, it is possible to halve nothing!

Tuesday, 21 October 2008

The IMF and my mate Gordo

So Gordo me old buddy went and came to my party! Just when the knock-out punch was about to land the haggard-looking shifty eyed bloke who currently lives at No10 Downing Street managed to pull a few strings and get both of his feet back under the table.

I'm sure that it is not only I and a few other million odd inhabitants of the United Kingdom and for that matter the world who are amazed at how he pulled off that amazing last minute resurrection. He did though - me old mate Gordo!

Within a matter of days, nay hours the rest of the world silently applauded Gordon Browns move to inject capital into British Banks by rapidly following suit.

Apart from a few dissenters, those journalists who could feel the situation ebbing, David Cameron who dug a grave for himself by attacking Gordon Brown during his moment of triumph and the IMF who must have been asleep when Gordon Brown and the rest of the world introduced what may possibly be the solution to lessen the impact of the credit crunch.

It is a couple of weeks since the IMF last sent out shock waves by predicting world collapse; today they were quoted in a BBC article as saying "More European banks may fail". This irresponsible shock reporting and conjecture by what should be the strong face of world financial stability and unity is abysmal and wrong! I can only think that they do it to provoke or rekindle worry, to curry thoughts of insecurity that will lead to crisis, thus building a negative world that will rely on the IMF to loan money to save them!

After all, during times of economic stability and boom the IMF is but a source of funds to falling dictators, to third world countries torn apart by internal strife and on a very good day to a couple of newly developed ex-soviet states in desperate need of capitalization. This crisis though has given them Iceland on a plate! And wow, wouldn't that be a coup, to have some other countries knocking on the door, Ukraine perhaps, even Turkey or are they looking further up the ladder? Is the UK a target of the IMF?

You tell em Gordo!